The wait is over! Formula 1 has landed in Australia and the
5 red lights will go out once again in 2 days time. So, what can we expect
throughout the season and in the opening race? For the most part, at best all
predications are just that, speculation and educated guesses gained as a result
from the form of the teams and drivers throughout the 12 days of pre-season
testing. So here is a team by team break down of what we know thus far and what
we can expect in the first round of the 2015 season.
Mercedes:
Driver Line-up: Lewis Hamilton & Nico Rosberg Testing Mileage: 6121 km
Everybody’s favourite for the 2015 constructors championship
and rightly so. Potentially the gap between Mercedes and the rest of the field could
be even greater than at the end of last season. Throughout preseason testing
they have given us no doubt that they will pick up from their form from last
season. Having completed the highest distance in testing with impeccable reliability
they have seemingly focused on their Achilles heel from last year and yet they
have still shown phenomenal pace. The true extent of their speed is unknown as
no low fuel laps on the super-soft tyres were made to directly compare Mercedes
to the other teams. Beyond this, both drivers and Toto Wolff have kept their
cards close to their chest as to how fast the W06 really is. As for the
drivers, well Hamilton has come out to nonsense the impact that his break up
with Nicole Scherzinger has affected his mentality and is many people’s
favourite to become a three time world champion. As for Rosberg, if the incentive
of missing out on the Driver’s title at the last race of the season is not
enough for him to close the gap to Hamilton, then I’m not sure what is. Regardless,
in stereotypical fashion, the Germans have already put their beach towel on the
sunbed that is the constructor’s title.
Red Bull:
Driver Line-up: Daniel Ricciardo & Daniil Kvyat
Testing Milage: 4352 km
It is difficult to know exactly where to place Red Bull this
season. Renault still have engine upgrade tokens to cash in, but the gap to the
Ferrari and Mercedes powertrains is still present. Given the position of
Williams and Mercedes as well as the improvement in the Ferrari, I think Red
Bull could face a much tougher challenge to finish in similar positions this
season. As for the drivers, Ricciardo now has the pressure of being the number
one driver and continuing on from being heralded as the most talented driver on
the grid after his sterling performance last season. Likewise, Kvyat faces a
big step up and it will be interesting to see how he fairs alongside Ricciardo.
Maybe the camouflaged livery they adopted for testing will reveal some
performance secrets for Australia- was it to hide the latest Newey trick?
Ferrari:
Driver Line-up: Sebastian Vettel & Kimi Raikkonen Testing Mileage: 5423 km
Can the prancing horse overpower the raging bull? Ferrari
look to have a much better car this season. They have opted for a long nose
design, and appear to have a very drivable car in the SF15-T. Look no further
than Kimi Raikkonen who appears to have a much greater affinity with the 2015
car than last season. The big news though from Maranello is the signing of
Vettel. It will make for a very interesting story to see how he performs and
recovers from a well below par season just gone. The eyes of many will be on
his every result and whether the Ferraris, now managed by team boss Maurizio Arrivabene,
can beat the Red Bulls. There has been a restructuring of Ferrari from the top
and it is once again high time that their on track performance lives up to the
brand synonymous with racing and winning.
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| Vettel exiting the Ferrari garage |
Williams:
Driver Line-up: Felipe Massa & Valtteri Bottas Testing Mileage: 4913 km
Make no mistake, Williams look set to have another strong
season. Although compared to 12 months ago their preseason does not seem quite
so impressive, to think they performed poorly would be very misjudged. They
still retain two quality drivers and a fast car in the FW36. I think if they
can improve their strategy from last season then they should pick up a race win
or more and will be consistently at the front of the chasing pack to the
Mercedes.
McLaren Honda:
Driver Line-up: Jenson Button & Fernando Alonso Testing Mileage: 1751 km
Not quite the dream start to such a prestigious reunion. Plagued
constantly with unreliability, I do not think anyone is overly surprised at the
prospect of neither McLarens seeing the chequered flag in Australia. For the
first race of the season Magnussen will be taking the wheel while Alonso errs
on the side of caution following his Catalunya shunt- the details of which
remain sketchy following reports that Alonso supposedly came to believing it
was 1995. Ironic considering McLaren’s promo based on ‘Back to the Future’. One
thing I am surprised by though is McLaren seemingly wasting their two allotted filming
days. Last season Red Bull appeared to make great leaps in improving their
reliability between testing and the first race. Many put this down to them
using their filming days post testing to improve their reliability. I think
McLaren could have potentially pulled off a similar trick, but it is not to be.
With Newey’s deputy having designed the MP4-30, many see McLaren making vast
improvements come the end of the season potentially resulting in at least a
race win if they can improve their powertrain. Hopefully this would mark a
return to form for such a successful team. Watch this space.
Force India:
Driver
Line-up: Sergio Perez & Nico Hulkenberg Testing Mileage: 3114 km
Don’t
be mistaken into reading too far into the 3000 or so miles achieved in testing.
Most were recorded in the 2014 car. Force India are another team facing real
financial turmoil over the next 12 months. So to have the Mercedes powertrain and
a car that had a successful but very limited run of testing will hopefully
provide some much needed optimism that Force India can remain competitive, if
not at the same level of last season. To have the added benefit of Hulkenberg’s
pace must be another crumb of comfort. For the reputation of the sport, I hope
he does not find himself without pay once again, like he did at Sauber. They relied
on the generosity of Mercedes to test at all and voted to not allow Marussia
back into the sport in the hope of securing greater finance. With the team having
lost £50 million in 2 years and the 3 main backers of the team in equal legal
and financial trouble, it appears that a bleak future lay ahead of the team.
Toro Rosso:
Driver Line-up: Max Verstappen & Carlos Sainz Jr. Testing Mileage: 5534 km
Two blasts from the past. The Verstappen and Sainz names
return to motorsport. Although the Toro Rosso package looks a handful judging by
preseason reports, Max looks a young, hungry and phenomenal talent who can tame
the car. I think Sainz will have a difficult task to hang onto his coat tails. These
are two drivers whom I think many will keep one eye open as to how they perform
race by race. Hopefully their youth will show pace and raw talent and not be
subject to scrutiny over rash actions and inexperience.
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| Sainz Jr. and Verstappen |
Lotus:
Driver Line-up: Romain Grosjean & Pastor Maldonado Testing Mileage: 4230 km
And the award for most improved goes to… Switching to the
Mercedes powertrain may have been vastly expensive but it seems to have constituted
to half of the performance leap made from a dire season just gone. The second
half looks to have come from a much neater aero package. Colin Chapman’s
pioneering Lotus ethos seemed to have returned with the twin-tusk nose of last
season, but the car was woeful. This season, on the basis of testing, they appear
to be on a much better platform to finish higher up in the table to maximise
some desperately needed funds for the team. Romain has regained much of the
respect he lost in 2009 and 2012, but Lotus will need Maldonado to pull off a
similar revival in order to increase the possibility of beating the rest of the
mid-field teams for some desperately needed prize money.
Sauber:
Driver Line-up: Felipe Nasr & Marcus Ericsson Testing Mileage: 5709 km
Don’t be surprised to see that driver line-up change come Melbourne.
This week Sauber lost a court case with former test driver Giedo Van Der Garde
who was promised a race seat for 2015. This means that either they choose
to drop him and risk court again, but this seems unlikely or else they incur further
expenditure which they can do without. Alternatively they could opt to drop one
of Nasr or Ericsson to accommodate Van Der Garde. Out of the two, I think
Ericsson is more likely to drop out. With the Sauber clad in a Banco do Brasil
livery, I would expect that there would be tremendous resistance from the
sponsor to Nasr losing his race seat. As such I think he will more likely make
the grid should the driver line-up need changing. As for their on track performance,
although Sauber covered an impressive distance in testing and achieved multiple
fastest laps, I think to rely on this would be short sighted. Sauber will be
once again at the back of the pack as they rely on an updated 2014 car. Just how
far adrift they will be remains to be seen.
Manor:
Driver Line-up: Will Stevens & Roberto Merhi Testing Mileage: N/A
One of the easier teams to place in the field. As covered in
last months ‘Manor to Melbourne’ post, just the team making the 2015 season
itself is an achievement for Manor. It just remains to be seen whether or not
they can participate in the race having risen from the ashes like a Phoenix.
This falls down to the fact that the 2015 cars are running at 2-3 seasons a lap
faster than last year. This in conjunction with Manor only using an updated
2014 car due to the circumstances, no testing through the winter and having
competed at the back of the field last season, the honeymoon period of making
Australia may come to an abrupt end if they fail to meet the 107% rule. (If a
driver does not qualify within an additional 7% time frame to the fastest lap time achieved in the first qualifying session then he will not be permitted to participate in the race). Since last
month’s piece, they have confirmed Roberto Merhi as their second driver
alongside Will Stevens. The Spaniard won the 2011 Formula 3 championship,
finished 3rd place in the drivers’ standings of last year’s Formula
Renault 3.5 season and tested the 2014 Caterham at Monza. In short, the reality
for Manor is that the season ahead will be a stop gap until they begin
developing a car for the 2016 season. At best, mixing it up with the Saubers
and picking up positions with good reliability is what Manor can expect without
exceptional circumstances.
Finally, after what feels like an agonisingly long off season has
drawn to a close, F1 will roar once again in Melbourne. Behind the Silver
Arrows, the teams have a lot to prove this season and there is little doubt that
this will make for anything less than a fascinating spectacle as the season unfolds.
All that’s left to say is that it’s ‘Go go go!’
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